Abstract
The standardisation of volcano early warning systems (VEWS) and volcano alert level systems (VALS) is becoming increasingly common at both the national and international level, most notably following UN endorsement of the development of globally comprehensive early warning systems. Yet, the impact on its effectiveness, of standardising an early warning system (EWS), in particular for volcanic hazards, remains largely unknown and little studied. This paper examines this and related issues through evaluation of the emergence and implementation, in 2006, of a standardised United States Geological Survey (USGS) VALS. Under this upper-management directive, all locally developed alert level systems or practices at individual volcano observatories were replaced with a common standard. Research conducted at five USGS-managed volcano observatories in Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley and Yellowstone explores the benefits and limitations this standardisation has brought to each observatory. The study concludes (1) that the process of standardisation was predominantly triggered and shaped by social, political, and economic factors, rather than in response to scientific needs specific to each volcanic region; and (2) that standardisation is difficult to implement for three main reasons: first, the diversity and uncertain nature of volcanic hazards at different temporal and spatial scales require specific VEWS to be developed to address this and to accommodate associated stakeholder needs. Second, the plural social contexts within which each VALS is embedded present challenges in relation to its applicability and responsiveness to local knowledge and context. Third, the contingencies of local institutional dynamics may hamper the ability of a standardised VALS to effectively communicate a warning. Notwithstanding these caveats, the concept of VALS standardisation clearly has continuing support. As a consequence, rather than advocating further commonality of a standardised VALS, we recommend adoption of a less prescriptive VALS that is scalable and sufficiently flexible for use by local stakeholders via standardised communication products designed to accommodate local contingency, while also adhering to national policy.
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Notes
Semi-structured interviews were completed with a number of actors involved in the VALS: scientists within the USGS Volcano Hazard Program (VHP), including volcanologists, seismologists, glaciologists and chemists; with users of the VALS at other federal agencies; and with collaborative partners, such as Universities and State officials. There are a diverse range of VALS users, ranging from emergency managers to land owners (U.S. Forest Service, National Monuments, private land) who are generally local, to partner organisations (collaborative universities and institutes), state geologists and the National Weather Service (NWS), which are regionally at state level, and the aviation sector (VAACs and Air Traffic Control), which are national. The interviews provide insights into the personal perspectives of the variety of scientists and users involved in the design and implementation of the VALS. This is complemented by ethnographic observational data on the interactions between these different perspectives in practice, and document analysis on the historical emergence and stabilisation of these policies. Data are also derived from the archive released under the Freedom of Information Act (U.S. FOIA), including emails of different staff within the VHP that discuss the standardisation of the VALS.
The Federal Register is available online, but only since 1994. Access to v.48. n197 from October 11, 1983 can only be provided by Federal depository libraries within the U.S. Outside the U.S., some major libraries may also carry the Federal Register.
Still in effect (to date of writing), the official (bureau-level) USGS hazard notifications system can only issue a formal hazard warning, although no official warnings have been issued since the 1984 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawaii on March 29 (email correspondence from Menlo Park scientist to standardisation committee in March 2003, U.S FOIA archives).
The odd thing is that the NWS terms that usually describe meteorological hazards are not used to describe the ash hazards influenced by meteorological systems, but the ground hazards (AVO collaborator 3; 17/04/08).
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Acknowledgements
Thanks must be given to Deborah Dixon and Nick Pearce for their critical comments and suggestions, and to the two reviewers who provided valuable insights to help strengthen the paper and its appeal. This research would not have been possible without the guidance of Bill McGuire, John Twigg and Gail Davies at University College London. Finally, staff from the USGS volcano hazard program, along with numerous users of the volcano alert level systems, many at U.S. federal agencies, dedicated hours to this research across all five observatories, and thanks must be given for their generosity and kind hospitality during my fieldwork. Carina Fearnley’s thesis, ‘Standardising the USGS Volcano Alert Level System: acting in the context of risk, uncertainty and complexity’, was funded by an interdisciplinary grant between the UK Natural Environment and Economic and Social Research Councils (NERC and ESRC), project no. PTA-036-2006-00040 and was completed at the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at UCL.
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Fearnley, C.J., McGuire, W.J., Davies, G. et al. Standardisation of the USGS Volcano Alert Level System (VALS): analysis and ramifications. Bull Volcanol 74, 2023–2036 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0645-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0645-6