SITTING in his campaign office in Ammanford, an old mining town in south Wales, Jonathan Edwards, the local MP for Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, vividly recounts what he calls “the most incredible experience of my political life”. That was the night of September 18th, when he travelled 600km (370 miles) to Glasgow to witness the referendum on Scottish independence.
The separatists of the Scottish National Party (SNP) were defeated but, since the poll, their support has surged. In February Lord Ashcroft, a pollster, suggested that the SNP could win up to 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in the election (it now holds just six). This has spurred on Mr Edwards and Plaid Cymru, whose goal is gaining more powers from Westminster and ultimately independence. Yet few Welsh voters seem to share their enthusiasm. Why?
Support for independence has never been as strong in Wales as in Scotland. When devolved government was first mooted in 1979, only one Welsh newspaper, the Western Mail, was keen on the idea; to the north, several Scottish ones championed it. Only 6% of the Welsh population now wants to be separate from the rest of Britain (and only 14% of fluent Welsh speakers back independence), though 40% would like more powers for the partially devolved National Assembly, which was set up in Cardiff in 1997.
In 2001 Plaid Cymru scooped up 14% of Welsh votes in the general election. Most recent polls put it around 10-11%. The party could even lose a few seats. Mr Edwards’s constituency, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, is being targeted by Labour along with tiny Arfon in the north (see map).
This apparent lack of enthusiasm for Welsh nationalism can be explained partly by history. Wales was joined to England in the mid-16th century, nearly 200 years before Scotland was. Geography and politics have also played their part, and Wales still depends heavily on England. It shares its police and legal system, and relies on Westminster for cash. Fully 29% of its population is employed in the public sector, compared with 21% in Scotland. Around 80,000 Welsh residents commute across the border to work.
In the 1970s the SNP left cultural nationalism behind and focused on becoming a credible political alternative to Westminster. But Plaid Cymru is still associated with softer aspects of nationalism, such as boosting the Welsh language. This has given the party a support base in the west and north of the principality, but also means it appeals less to non-Welsh speakers.
The party could also have been far more ruthless when it started to win votes in 1999, says Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University. Rather than cause havoc for Labour, then the dominant party in the Welsh Assembly, it strengthened its opponent by helping to oust its unpopular leader. It later went into coalition with the party, weakening itself. Labour, in turn, responded to the threat of Plaid Cymru by appointing Welsh-speaking leaders and trying to distance its policies from Westminster, so boosting its support. Scottish Labour is only belatedly trying to do this.
Now another party may prove to be far more disruptive. Large parts of Wales suffered from deindustrialisation in the 1970s and 80s and are full of older, disaffected voters. They are ideal targets for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), says Matthew Goodwin of the University of Nottingham. In last year’s European elections UKIP won 28% of the vote in Wales, just behind Labour. Despite running a ramshackle campaign in Wales for the general election on May 7th the party could increase the share of its vote and win several seats in Welsh Assembly elections next year.
A surge of support for UKIP could help Plaid Cymru if the Eurosceptic party chips away at the Labour and Conservative bases. But, unlike in Scotland, where UKIP is viewed as suspiciously English, it also presents a threat to the Welsh nationalists. The traditional Plaid Cymru heartland is weakening: fewer people speak Welsh, while more English people are moving to places like Ammanford. Unless Plaid Cymru can broaden its appeal among the economically disgruntled it will remain a fringe party. Learning from some aspects of the SNP campaign would help, but it seems there is less fire in this dragon’s belly.
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "It is unusual"
